Improved nonparametric confidence intervals in time series regressions

Improved Nonparametric Confidence Intervals in Time Series Regressions

Confidence intervals in econometric time series regressions suffer from notorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependence in the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as is often the case in empirical studies. This paper suggests using the studentized block bootstrap and discusses practical issues, such as the choice of the block size. A particular da...

Confidence Bands in Nonparametric Time Series Regression

We consider nonparametric estimation of mean regression and conditional variance (or volatility) functions in nonlinear stochastic regression models. Simultaneous confidence bands are constructed and the coverage probabilities are shown to be asymptotically correct. The imposed dependence structure allows applications in many linear and nonlinear auto-regressive processes. The results are appli...

Confidence intervals in stationary autocorrelated time series

In this study we examine in covariance stationary time series the consequences of constructing confidence intervals for the population mean using the classical methodology based on the hypothesis of independence. As criteria we use the actual probability the confidence interval of the classical methodology to include the population mean (actual confidence level), and the ratio of the sampling e...

Confidence Intervals for Long Memory Regressions

Confidence Intervals for Nonparametric Regression

In non-parametric function estimation, providing a confidence interval with the right coverage is a challenging problem. This is especially the case when the underlying function has a wide range of unknown degrees of smoothness. Here we propose two methods of constructing an average coverage confidence interval built from block shrinkage estimation methods. One is based on the James-Stein shrin...